Steel Price Charts, Futures (Scrap Iron, Hot Rolled Coils, Rebar, Plate)

While talking about US Steel (X) call action today and the 4.5% underlying move, when $SPY closed -1.13% (h/t @sellputs, btw what is going on with US Steel? $X options were active on AUG 19 as well through October), I came across a site (metalprices.com) that has embeddable steel price charts for:

(1) Scrap Iron #1 Dealer/Bundles (Chicago Mill) (2) Scrap Iron HMS (Chicago Mill) (3) Cold Rolled Coils (East of Mississippi) (4) Hot Rolled Coils (East of Mississippi) (5) Rebar (EoM) and (6) Standard Plate (EoM). They offer other metals as well, check out the site.

It appears that the prices lag, I'm not sure why. The data ends on July 13 for scrap iron and July 26 for steel. Today is September 7. It could be related to steel price reporting as other commodities show various end dates as well. Either way, check out the 6-month and 3-year charts for Scrap Iron #1 Bundles, Hot Rolled Coils and Rebar. Find more at the site. You can also chart out U.S. Midwest Domestic Hot-Rolled Coil Steel Index Futures at CME.com which trades everyday and the Steel Stock Index ETF (SLX). The steel price benchmarks look similar to the S&P.

Vinny Catalano's S&P Targets: 950 End of 2010, 750 in 2011 (Blue Marble Research) S&P Chart

Vinny Catalano, of Blue of Marble Research, on Tech Ticker six days ago (9/1/2010) said the S&P 500 was in a trading range between 1020 and 1150 and to watch support/resistance levels. Ultimately, Vinny believes the S&P will break to the downside and hit 950 by year end and 750 in 2011. He believes a political gridlock will not be good for the stock market and sees negative catalysts ahead. See the Tech Ticker video after the jump and S&P chart. I think the summer 2009 chop fest highs get tested around 950.

Let Housing Fall, Jim Rickards Interview, Strike in France

Omnis, Inc's Jim Rickards Interview, Says Sell Stocks - King World News

Unemployment in U.S. May Rise Toward 10%, `Feeble' Growth (BofA, Morgan Stanley) - Bloomberg

Housing Woes Bring a New Cry: Let the Market Fall - New York Times

BHP, Rio Tinto to Pay Mining Tax as Gillard Wins Support for Government - Bloomberg

10-Year JGB Yield Spikes 25bps (27%) in 12 Days (Japanese Bonds)

If you didn't notice, Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) had a wild August. They reversed course abruptly starting on August 18. I told you to keep your eye on JGBs on August 9 and gave links to charts of various Japanese Government Bond yields at Bloomberg.com. Then on August 18 Kyle Bass (one of the few hedge fund managers who made bank shorting subprime mortgages using CDS) came on CNBC and said JGBs were a great short (lower price/higher yield). The market listened to him, 10-Year JGBs sold off hard and yields ran up to 1.15% from 0.90% in 12 sessions. (+25 basis points or 27%). They were overbought.

Paulson & Co. Update

Must read at Zero Hedge (featuring AG). Read the full post.

10Y Greek Bond Yield/Bund Spread Elevated, CDS 894bps, 3M Yield Plummets

Technical sovereign debt update for Greece. The Greek 10-year Government Bond Yield (11.324%) is in a steep uptrend and close to the May high. The Greek 3-month Bond Yield (4.72%) plummeted, so the yield curve just got steeper. More.. The 10y Greek Bond/German Bund (2.34%) spread widened and Greek 5y CDS (credit default swap) is in a symmetrical triangle inflection point, at 894bps (close to highs). The outlier is the 3-month Yield. Thoughts? People still think Greece will default or have to restructure (Do not fall for talk of European solvency - FT.com). More articles and Bloomberg charts after the jump.

Pento on Inflation, Gold, Housing, Consequences of Monetary Stimulus (Inflation)

Mike Pento, Senior Economist at Euro Pacific Capital, was interviewed by King World News last week. He's a specialist in "Austrian Economics". Here are a few points he made (full interview).
  • Bernanke promises "unconventional" methods to combat deflation. (read Jackson Hole speech)
  • "He (Bernanke) already purchased longer dated Treasuries and he's already purchased mortgage-backed securities, I can only assume he's ready to buy stocks and real estate...." (increase Fed Balance sheet)
  • "Monetary base has gone from $800 billion to just under $2 trillion...."
  • "(Gold) is absolutely, 100%, an inflation hedge"
  • "We've had decades of a massive increase in the money supply, a massive increase in lending and a massive increase in asset price inflation (Nasdaq stocks, real estate prices). When that ends the natural occurrence for healing would be for a deflationary depression"
  • Money supply has to shrink, consumers have to deleverage (pay down debt/sell off assets)
  • "You might get a nominal increase in the major averages, you might stop the hemorrhaging that's in the housing market, but at what cost?"
  • "When you increase the supply of currency it is never EVER evenly distributed"

Hear the full interview at King World News

Roubini at Ambrosetti Forum Italy (Video), Sees Stall Speed Growth

Nouriel Roubini  (NYU Professor/Roubini Global Economics) spoke with CNBC Europe Squawk Box before the Ambrosetti Forum in Italy. The view is from Villa D'Este on Lago di Como (Lake Como), Roubini Twitpic'd a better view. He still sees a 40% chance of a double dip recession. View the full 12 minute video below.

Today, the Labor Department reported that the economy lost 54,000 jobs, better than the 120,000 (economists) or 90,000 (wall street) loss expected. The unemployment rate rose to 9.6% (Aljazeera, Forbes). Also, Royal Bank of Scotland Plans to Cut 3,500 Jobs. Happy Labor Day people. Nice short covering today, $SPY closed at 110.91 +1.30%, see previous post for long and short term charts with moving averages. I parsed a few things from the video.

*Growth in the second half of the year will be worse than the first half, we'll reach a stall speed for the economy less than 1%.

S&P-Nikkei Performance Spread Wide, Nikkei >9000, E-mini S&P Future at Inflection Point (ES, NK, SPY, EWJ, Japan)

Right now I'm watching Nikkei 225 Index Futures (September/December), the ES-NK performance spread and E-mini S&P December Future. Starting in July, the performance spread between the E-mini S&P and Nikkei 225 Index widened dramatically. I wonder when and how the gap closes, or if Japan and U.S. growth rates (or prices) diverge from here. These are financial futures in case you are lost.


Nikkei (NK) vs. E-mini S&P (ES) - December Future (courtesy of optionsXpress)


Nikkei 225 Index Futures are still trading in a descending channels but could be forming a falling wedge reversal pattern. You can see the downtrend and apex point to break. 

Ben Bernanke, Sheila Bair at 2008 Financial Crisis Hearing (9/2/2010)

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation) Chair Sheila Bair testified before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission about the actions of the Fed during the 2008 financial crisis.

The U.S. Lost Decade is Over

According to Doug Kass (TheStreet.com)

U.S. Faces Deflation Risk Due to Indebtedness (Linda Yueh/Oxford Economist - Video)

Oxford University Economist Linda Yueh was on Bloomberg on 8/30/2010 talking about the Yen (BoJs recent move) and deflation risks in the U.S. and portions of Europe.
"I think there is a real (deflation) danger for the United States. It's less of a danger for Europe even though this was the big thing at Jackson Hole. Trichet is very worried about Europe going into a 1990s style Japanese deflationary trap because of all this debt de-leveraging which can cause a deflationary price spiral. As debt gets shed, prices fall, output falls, and then it's reinforcing. However, in the U.S. where this is more likely to be the case because of the scale of the financial crisis and the scale of indebtedness, Bernanke wasn't worried about deflation and he's really viewing the U.S. more as a slow growth story".

Former Lehman CEO Dick Fuld Testified Before FCIC (9/1/2010) $LEH

Dick Fuld testified before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission yesterday. Click the link to see the video at Cspan.org.

2008 Financial Crisis and Systemic Risk, Lehman Brothers Hearing (cspan.org)

"Thomas C. Baxter, Jr., General Counsel and Executive Vice President Federal Reserve Bank of New York Richard S. "Dick" Fuld, Jr., Former Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Lehman Brothers Harvey R. Miller, Business Finance & Restructuring Partner Weil, Gotshal & Manges, LLP Barry L. Zubrow, Chief Risk Officer JPMorgan Chase & Co."

SPY Pierces 50-Day Moving Average, Holds 200-Month But Growth Recession Upon Us

Simple Technical Analysis on SPY, S&P 500 ETF - 9/1/2010 (Distressed Volatility Research - For Internal Use Only*see charts after the jump

Today SPY pierced the 50 Day Moving Average and held the 50 Month moving average but still needs to conquer the 200 Day Moving Average, 50 Week Moving Average, 200 Week Moving Average and 50 Month Moving average. We'll see how the HFT bots trade the market between now and the elections. Bank of America/Merrill Lynch forecasts a "Growth Recession" ahead (From LA Times).
"Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Wednesday downgraded its forecast for the economy, calling for a “growth recession.”

What’s that? As BofA Merrill economists describe it, the U.S. would continue to grow in the fourth quarter and in 2011, but not fast enough to generate significant employment gains." (read article for more numbers)

Speaking of HFT, I think CNBC's Fast Money needs to hire an HFT Robot correspondent to tell people what's really going on in the market. Zero Hedge is the only site out there talking about it in depth.

Dan Rather Interviews SecondMarket CEO Barry Silbert, Revolutionizing Markets

Barry Silbert of SecondMarket.com is revolutionizing markets. Big things happening here! As of June they were managing $25 Billion in illiquid assets according to the Dan Rather interview. Centralize it! SecondMarket is a global platform for liquidity with competitive bids for illiquid assets. From their website, SecondMarket trades asset backed securities, auction rate securities, bankruptcy claims, collateralized debt obligations, limited partnership interests, private company stock (also see StockTwits "Private Ticker"), mortgage backed securities, bankruptcy claims, restricted securities, whole loans and soon to come, 363 bankruptcy sales, condo hotels, private REITs, and trust preferred securities (TRuPS).

Watch Dan Rather interview SecondMarket CEO, Barry Silbert - SecondMarket

Gunman James Lee In DiscoveryTV Building Holding Hostages (Video, Links)

This hostage situation in the Discovery Channel building (Maryland) has been going on for hours now. James Lee is holding a "small" number of people hostage. Watch the live video stream below for real-time information via WashingtonPost.com. First, read the initial incident.

"Money-throwing protester gets probation, fine
California man would face jail if he comes within 500 feet of Discovery building" (Gazette.net).

VIDEO: James Lee Throwing Cash In The Air During Earlier Stunt At Discovery Channel (BusinessInsider.com)

That was "Wave 1", now for "Wave 3"..

Jim Rogers Q&A, Gold Should Be >2,000, Prefers Silver (GLD, SLV)

Jim Rogers prefers Silver over Gold here but owns both in his portfolio. He made his case on CNBC on August 29.
  • Gold should be greater than $2,000/ounce if you adjust it for the 1980 high
  • If there's a currency crisis both gold and silver will rise  
  • Prefers Silver over Gold because (a) it's so depressed (b) potential for more gains on a percentage basis

Today I charted out $GLD and $SLV (Gold and Silver ETFs) and both are testing ceiling resistance levels. SLV is plotting a 2008 ceiling breakout which Gold took out 10 months ago (November, 2009). $SLV needs to rush the opposition (sellers) successfully at $19.50 resistance to run free (imo, mid-20s, top of ascending channel, see chart update link).

GLD, SLV Approaching Highs From May, June (Charts) - August 31, 2010

Chart Update, Ratio Analysis: GLD, SPY, SLV, IWM, TLT, UUP, GDX, GDXJ, SP-500 Index - August 25