The Day the Dollar Died (Video by NAI), Bernanke Beware of This Hyperinflation Scenario!

Watch this fictional yet horrifying video made by the National Inflation Association (inflation.us) depicting a hyper-inflationary Dollar collapse. It is titled: "The Day the Dollar Died: The first 12 hours of a U.S. dollar collapse". The NAI believes there's a serious risk of hyperinflation in the U.S if the Fed keeps pumping trillions in excess reserves into the banking system (we're at QE4 in the video). Watch it after the jump. They did another video in August on the similarities and differences between Japan in 1990 (beginning of Japan's lost deflationary decade) and the U.S. today. Some economists, like David Rosenberg, believe ongoing debt de-leveraging will outweigh reflationary policies for many years, which will force price stability. Bernanke has everything under control, right?

Protests Against Austerity in UK, Austria and Ireland (Videos, 11.27.2010)

On Friday, in the UK, there were violent student protests against the proposed tuition hike that would triple fees. People then took to the streets in Ireland and Austria protesting against tax hikes and budget cuts (protest reflexivity). See videos after the jump. People protested against bailouts as well (related: Ireland Bank CDS widened on Friday). So, when does the austerity party and protests start in the U.S.? On a currency note, BlackRock's Larry Fink thinks the Euro (EUR/USD) could hit 1.20 as a result of the EU debt crisis and contagion (Telegraph.co.uk). Watching Portugal and EspaƱa.

1) Students in UK rioting proposed tuition hike (courtesy of RussiaToday)
2) 50,000 people march through Dublin protesting austerity measures (speeches)
3) Thousands protest proposed budget cuts in Vienna, Austria (courtesy of Press.tv)

Ireland Credit Default Swaps Widening (Bank of Ireland, Allied Irish Banks, Irish Life and Permanent)

Snapshots from CMA Datavision's largest widening spreads from today (11/26/2010). Charts after the jump. Junior bondholders at Anglo Irish Bank "already have been forced to accept losses of 80%-95%" (AP link).

Related news:

"Allied Irish, Bank of Ireland May Buy Back Subordinated Bonds" - Bloomberg.com

"S&P cuts ratings on Irish banks; Anglo deemed junk"- AP

"Claims Allowed on Anglo Irish Default Insurance" - WSJ (11/24/2010)

Projections for 2011: Dennis Gartman, Jim Rogers, Gary Shilling (Videos)

Macro views and projections for 2011 - 11/24/2010

Dennis Gartman's top trades for 2011. He likes Gold in Euros (XAU/EUR), Australian Dollar in Euros (AUD/EUR), corn and soybeans.

Reads: Soros Gold Holdings, Louise Yamada on Technicals, Eurozone Crises, Jim Rogers (11.23.2010)

Powerlinks for 11/24/2010

Louise Yamada (technical analyst) - Caution on the Stock Market - KingWorldNews (11/23/2010)

Howard Lindzon and Jim Rogers on StockTwits.tv

Poverty Soars in California - Gregor.us

Soros says conditions "pretty perfect" for gold - Reuters (11/16/2010)

Text of FOMC Minutes; GDP, Unemployment, PCE Projections (11/3/2010)

Below is an excerpt from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes on 11/2/2010 and 11/3/2010. The quoted text does not include staff reviews. Here is the FOMC Statement.


"Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook
In conjunction with this FOMC meeting, all meeting participants--the six members of the Board of Governors and the heads of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks--provided projections of output growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2010 through 2013 and over the longer run. Longer-run projections represent each participant's assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks. Participants' forecasts are described in the Summary of Economic Projections, which is attached as an addendum to these minutes.

XRT/HYG (Retail Index/High Yield Bond ETF) Testing April High - Chart

XRT/HYG, what do you think y'all. Can the ratio pry through April, 2010 resistance? Or will retail sales disappoint and stocks fall faster (or rise slower) than high yield bonds.

Futures Down, Dollar Up on South Korea Attack (ES, USDJPY, EURUSD, EURJPY - Charts)

S&P futures are down and the US Dollar is up on Korea tensions. EUR/JPY is testing the downtrend line. See charts after the jump (ESZ10 -0.73% at 1,189.25). Will provide an update after the close.

North Korea Fires at South Korean Island (Video and Links)

Update: North Korea attacked a South Korean Island. Below are links and a video clips after the jump (added a live MBC News stream).


N. Korean attack sets S. Korean island ablaze, at least 1 dead - BNO News
S. Korea Scrambles Jets, Returns Fire After North Shells Island - Bloomberg
Marines killed one person, injured 13 people.. army on alert - YTN.ko.kr (title translated)
NK Fires Coastal Artillery at S.Korean Island (Yeonpyeong) - KBS World (kbs.co.kr)
North Korea fires on South Korea – live coverage - Guardian
North and South Korea Exchange Dozens of Artillery Shells - New York Times
North Korea and South Korea exchange fire, raising tensions - FT/BeyondBrics Blog
North Korea bombs South Korean island - The Telegraph
North Korea Fires Rockets at Island - WSJ
Two Koreas exchange fire across maritime border - Reuters
'Artillery firing' on Korea border - Al Jazeera English

Analyst Mary Meeker on Internet Trends at 2010 Web 2.0 Summit (Video/Slides)

The Web 2.0 Summit is great. See web venture capitalists Fred Wilson and John Doerr battle it out in my previous post. Mary Meeker, an technology analyst at Morgan Stanley, did a presentation on "internet trends" (globality, mobile, social ecosystem, advertising, commerce, media, pace of change etc). I embedded the video and presentation slides after the jump. Mobile is blowing up..


"Global Unit Shipments of Smartphones > Desktop/Notebook PCs by 2012". Also, internet ad spending is "out of whack" with consumption, using TV, print and radio as comparables (chart in the report).

Other interviews at the Web 2.0 Summit include Eric Schmidt (CEO of Google) and Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook).

Gregor Macdonald on IEA's Oil Projection (65% of Future Supply Coming From Fields Not Yet Discovered)

Gregor Macdonald of Gregor.us and Macrotwits Hour was on Max Keiser's show on 11/20/2010 talking about the IEA's recent world oil production projection (w/ chart) out to 2035. I embedded Part 1 after the jump, see parts 2 and 3 at MaxKeiser.com. IEA = International Energy Agency.
"The IEA very surprisingly and I must say rather strangely, has forecasted that the bulk of future oil supply will come from fields not yet discovered or developed" (65% of that future oil)

Has The Market Been Rigged For Decades? (Hedge Fund Raids/Tech Ticker Video)

"The most valuable commodity I know of is information" -Gordon Gekko. Nothing new going on here people.

1) U.S. in Vast Insider Trading Probe

2) FBI Visit Exposes Trade-Probe Tactics

3) FBI Raids Two Hedge Funds (Diamondback Capital Management LLC and Level Global Investors LP) Amid Insider-Trading Case.

4) FBI raids Loch Capital

5) SAC Capital, Janus, Wellington Receive Inquiries on Insider Trading, SAC Discloses Government Subpoena

6) Citadel Receives Subpoena

Expert Networks:

1) Expert-Broker Chu Steered Hedge Fund to Asia, U.S. Says
"Don Ching Trang Chu, the “expert- network” executive arrested yesterday on insider-trading charges, had a roster of Asia-based employees of North American technology companies to feed information to clients, according to court documents."

2) U.S. Trading Probe Puts Research, Expert Networks in Spotlight

3) Consultant of 'Expert Network' Gerson Lehrman Group May Be Drawn Into Insider-Trading Probe (*update 11/30/2010)

Tech ticker video talking about it after the jump.

Energy Tells Tale of Fading West, Booming East - Guest Post

Guest post courtesy of OilPrice.com

Energy Tells Tale of Fading West, Booming East

The patient is the United States and the diagnosis is "Asia shock."

It is a psychological disease with physical symptoms and no known cure. However there are therapies, therapies of trade, diplomacy and fiscal restraint at home.

As President Barack Obama jetted around Asia, he may have pondered not so much the economic power that waits East of Suez, but why it took so long to emerge. And why the patient is in denial.

In the 18th and 19th centuries, Asia was for the taking by the European colonialists; and take they did.

Bernanke's ECB Speech: Global Imbalances, Unemployment Pose Risk to Recovery, Defends Policy (11/19/2010)

Bernanke gave an interesting speech at an ECB conference on Friday. He mentioned a few things that could "undermine" the global recovery: global trade imbalances, currency undervaluation, temporary cyclical unemployment turning into long-term structural unemployment and further disinflationary pressures (source: federalreserve.gov). I also embedded a video clip from EUX.tv.

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke
At the Sixth European Central Bank Central Banking Conference, Frankfurt, Germany

November 19, 2010

Rebalancing the Global Recovery

The global economy is now well into its second year of recovery from the deep recession triggered by the most devastating financial crisis since the Great Depression. In the most intense phase of the crisis, as a financial conflagration threatened to engulf the global economy, policymakers in both advanced and emerging market economies found themselves confronting common challenges. Amid this shared sense of urgency, national policy responses were forceful, timely, and mutually reinforcing. This policy collaboration was essential in averting a much deeper global economic contraction and providing a foundation for renewed stability and growth.

In recent months, however, that sense of common purpose has waned. Tensions among nations over economic policies have emerged and intensified, potentially threatening our ability to find global solutions to global problems. One source of these tensions has been the bifurcated nature of the global economic recovery: Some economies have fully recouped their losses while others have lagged behind. But at a deeper level, the tensions arise from the lack of an agreed-upon framework to ensure that national policies take appropriate account of interdependencies across countries and the interests of the international system as a whole. Accordingly, the essential challenge for policymakers around the world is to work together to achieve a mutually beneficial outcome--namely, a robust global economic expansion that is balanced, sustainable, and less prone to crises.