This post is for the bulls. Michael Ryan, head of UBS Wealth Management Research, was on CNBC today. Here are a few of his thoughts on the market and economy from the video (not from an official transcript). See the video below.
U.S. Will Remain Dominant Power In World: "We still think that the U.S. equity market will continue to do well. Remember U.S. corporations will continue to benefit from the environment here in the U.S., but also the ability to leverage some of the strong growth prospects outside the U.S. because of the fact that they are really multi-national corporations with a global footprint."
U.S. Stocks and Bonds: "This whole notion about a loss decade has become almost obsessive when you go through the period we had during the financial crisis. Our view is those lost decades are very very rare. They often don't repeat themselves. So our view is we're going to get normalized returns in the equity market which is somewhere around 8.5-9% per year as earnings continue to trend towards $165 a share for the S&P. We're not talking about this year by the way. But I also see the backdrop where markets will be fairly valued at P/E multiples somewhere about 14.5.
But really the issue here is that it's not so much the absolute returns but the lack of viable alternatives. If you look at fixed income, we expect to see rates ticking higher, cash right now is not a competitive asset class, so stocks will look good on an absolute basis but really appealing on a relative basis."
Listen to his views on the emerging markets and China in the video.
According to this Bloomberg article, UBS expects the S&P to hit 2,450 when using a 14.7 P/E ratio x 165 EPS (using the avg P/E since 1940).
Robert Shiller, Yale economics professor and co-founder of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, thinks the S&P will be worth 1,430 in 2020 using his cyclically adjusted P/E ratio that goes back to 1890 (video). Who will be right?