Steve Cohen at SALT, Paulson at UBS Conf, Whitney Tilson, John Taylor, Jim Rogers, Druckenmiller (5/15/2011)

Guru/hedge fund link fest (5/8/2011 to 5/15/2011)

Steve Cohen - S|A|C
*Billionaire hedge fund manager Steve Cohen, who runs $14 billion hedge fund SAC Capital, spoke at the SALT Conference (SkyBridge Alternatives) last week in Las Vegas. From the transcript courtesy of Deal Breaker, Mr. Cohen sees a market pause ("maybe people are worried about a growth scare") but thinks the second half of 2011 will be "decent". He believes the energy sector is "interesting" and the "commodities sell-off provides a nice entry point". He said he's more worried about 2012 as some of the government stimulus wears off. And regarding the budget deficit, Cohen said the bond market could force government action. This is the first time Distressed Volatility has seen Steve Cohen give market calls. When is your blog starting up Mr. Cohen?

*What If the U.S. Treasury Defaults? (Stanley Druckenmiller, who ran money with George Soros) - WSJ (h/t Zero Hedge)
"Some have argued that since investors are still willing to lend to the Treasury at very low rates, the government's financial future can't really be that bad. "Complete nonsense," Mr. Druckenmiller responds. "It's not a free market. It's not a clean market." The Federal Reserve is doing much of the buying of Treasury bonds lately through its "quantitative easing" (QE) program, he points out. "The market isn't saying anything about the future. It's saying there's a phony buyer of $19 billion of Treasurys a week." 
Warming to the topic, he asks, "When do you generally get action from governments? When their bond market blows up." But that isn't happening now, he says, because the Fed is "aiding and abetting" the politicians' "reckless behavior."

*Here's What John Paulson Said On Housing, Financials, Gold and the S&P at UBS's Financial Services Conference (he's bullish on the recovery, sees 40-60% upside in bank stocks and 34% upside in the S&P) Business Insider (5/10/2011) 

*Currency Hedge Fund Manager John Taylor Says ‘Risk Rally’ (higher-yielding assets) Is Coming to an End (FX Concepts) - Bloomberg (5/12/2011)

*Jim Rogers Says Dollar Is Long-Term ‘Total Disaster’ (Jim is "currently long the dollar because the market consensus is for the currency to fall", "short emerging markets", and believes the 30 year bull market in U.S. bonds is coming to an end. But, like the dollar, he's not shorting because "95 percent of the market expects them to decline.") - Bloomberg (5/12/2011)

*Value Investor Whitney Tilson's May 2011 Presentation (T2 Partners), $MSFT, $BRK - Zero Hedge (5/3/2011)

*Cyclical Bulls Within Secular Bears & Their Short Duration - Pragmatic Capitalism (via John Hussman's Weekly Market Comment).
"As the guys at Nautilus Capital note, cyclical bull markets within secular bears have tended to average just 26 months, with an average gain of 85%, while cyclical bears within secular bears have averaged 19 months, with steep average losses of -39%."

*Felix Zulauf turns bearish, expects major correction and QE3 - Credit Writedowns

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