Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Gold ETF is Testing Resistance On Two Trend Lines (GLD, GLD/SPY, USD, UUP Charts) 8/23/2011

I'm watching GLD again after its two month parabolic move and 20 day spike in SPY terms. Gold (XAU/USD) hit 1,910 on Monday and then fell to 1,820 yesterday. From July 1 to August 22, gold moved parabolically from 1,500 to 1,900 (+26%). Is it exhausted yet using DeMark indicators? I bet gold sees volatile swings soon. Let's see 7% days. I put trend lines and channels on GLD, GLD/SPY, $USD and UUP charts using multiple time frames below. GLD is trading at uptrend resistance levels on two trend lines, one from 2006 and the other from 2009. If GLD moves vertically here through resistance, it will be in a whole new world. The overall trend is up until GLD breaks major uptrend lines. Gold has been in a bull market for 11 years. Get ready for crazy moves in gold, the U.S. Dollar and equities on Friday when Bernanke gives his Jackson Hole speech. The US Dollar ETF is testing an important downtrend and floor support level. A catalyst will determine its fate very soon. Charts are courtesy of StockCharts.com.


GLD 5-Year Chart


GLD 11-Year Charts




GLD/SPY (Gold ETF / S&P 500 ETF)


US Dollar Index


UUP (US Dollar Index ETF)


Gold news and more (some added on 8/24):

*CME Group Raises Gold Margin Requirements* (CME Group PDF, Gold Futures: GC, MGC, 8Q, QO)
"German minister: euro zone bailouts need collateral" (Reuters)
"Merkel Rejects Seeking Collateral in European Bailouts as Splits Emerge" (Bloomberg)

"Central Banks Seen Retaining Gold to Help Manage Debt as Bullion Advances" (Bloomberg)
"Tully Says UBS Raising 3-Month Gold Forecast to $2,100" (Bloomberg Video)
"ROUBINI: Gold Is In A Hyperbolic Bubble" (Business Insider)
"Kazakh Central Bank Gets ‘Priority Right’ to Buy Gold" (Bloomberg)
"Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz on America's Lost Decade" (TheTakeAway)
"Japan Unveils $100 Billion to Fight Surging Yen as Moody’s Lowers Rating" (Bloomberg)
"European Bank Job ‘Bloodbath’ Surpasses 40,000" (Bloomberg)
"German Business Confidence Index Drops to Lowest Level in More Than a Year" (Bloomberg)
"SocGen Bids to Stabilize Share Price" (WSJ) 
"Finland threatens to withdraw Greek bailout support" (Telegraph)
"India banks fear rising bad loans" (FT)
"Fed's Bullard says FOMC to act if economy sags: report" (Reuters)

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