Based on CDS, Greece's Default Probability is 97.64% (CMA)
9/13/2011 04:04:00 AM
According to CMA's Sovereign Risk Monitor (see it free), Greece has the highest default probability percentage at 97.64%. Greece's 5Y credit default swap mid spread is at 7318.25, with Portugal right behind it at 1308.51 (default probability 63.75%). You can see Ireland, Italy and Spain are further down the list. Membership in the highest default probability club hasn't changed much since June 2010 (minus Dubai, Iraq, Illinois and California), but spreads and the CPD% have increased substantially for the PIIGS.