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| Source: Freestockcharts.com |
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
EUR/USD Bears Predict 1.0-1.20, Rallying Towards Downtrend In Meantime
Friday, January 6, 2012
Euro at inflection point in two channels (EUR/USD) 1/6/2012
EUR/USD broke support and then sold off to test (and actually form) a new channel support level (yellow line). You can see on the daily chart that it just bounced off that level. It is positioning for the U.S. employment report. EUR/USD is testing resistance in the steep white descending channel ("death channel") and support in the yellow descending channel just formed. The weekly chart shows a clearer view of what's been happening. If the euro can catch a bid here, a key resistance level to watch is 1.2873, or the January 2011 low. If EUR/USD can successfully destroy that downtrend line, it could rally up to that red ceiling and possibly to the yellow channel resistance level at some point. If it continues to slide, 1.2587 and 1.1875 are the next floors to watch. I say death channel because if the euro wants to test channel support, it is around 1.14 in January and 1.08-1.10 in February (see the third chart).
Judgment Day Near For European Sovereign Debt, Euro
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| Euros (source: aranjuez on flickr) |
*WSJ: Greek PM Says Country Faces Risk Of Disorderly Default In March (WSJ)
*ECB's Knot: Euro May Collapse If Greece Pushed Out (Dow Jones Newswires)
*EU Crisis Road Map: Key Milestones Ahead (WSJ)
*Spain, Italy Debt Insurance Costs Rise On Euro-Zone Worries (Dow Jones Newswires)
*French Debt Costs Rise at Bond Sale as AAA Decision Looms (BusinessWeek)
*France Likely to Lose AAA Rating: UBS European Economist (CNBC Video)
*Zero Hedge: The Can Kicking Is Ending, Key Upcoming Dates For Europe's Patient Zero (Zero Hedge)
*Collapse of euro will hit EU, global financial system: Soros (BusinessLine)
*Greece: If we can’t finalise second bailout, we’ll have to leave the euro (thejournal.ie)
*Banking sector trembles as UniCredit shares plunge (Reuters)
*High ECB reserves are not evidence of bank "hoarding" (Alea)
*Japan buys 300 mln euros of EFSF bonds -MOF official (Reuters) - where's China?
*Germany is Biggest Obstacle to Emergency Fund: Knot (Bloomberg)
*Slowing Inflation May Give ECB Room to Maneuver on Interest Rates: Economy (Bloomberg)
Thursday, January 5, 2012
New Low For The Euro, EUR/USD Hit 1.2837 (Chart)
According to ZH, Unicredit was halted down -7.9%, Deutsche Bank was down 5%, and the 10-year Italian bond yield was above 7% again. And then I saw EUR/USD drop to 1.2837, a new low. Check out the chart.
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| source: freestockcharts.com |
Wednesday, January 4, 2012
Investment in African Renewable Energy Reaches $3.6 Billion in 2011 - Guest Post
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| Kuraymat Solar Station (Egypt) - GreenProphet1 Flickr |
Investment in African Renewable Energy Reaches $3.6 Billion in 2011
First, the bad news.
Although Africa has vast fossil and renewable energy sources, only twenty percent of its population has direct access to electricity and in some rural areas, four out of five people are completely without power. According to the UN, over 600 million Africans currently do not have access to electric power. A depressing 70 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa's population is living without access to clean and safe energy for their basic needs such as cooking, lighting and heating, making energy poverty among the most urgent issues facing Africa. Worldwide, more than 1.4 billion people worldwide have no access to electricity, and 1 billion more only have intermittent access.
Over 2.5 billion people, almost half of humanity, rely on traditional biomass - wood, coal, charcoal, or animal waste to cook their meals and heat their homes, exposing themselves and their families to smoke and fumes that damage their health and kill nearly two million people a year. More than 95 percent of these people are either in sub-Saharan Africa or developing Asia.
The good news?
Case for Sustained $100 Oil - Guest Post
Guest post by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
Case for Sustained $100 Oil
By Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors
In 2011, oil was one of the top performing commodities among those we track, with Brent rising more than 13 percent. Geopolitical risk and unexpected non-OPEC supply losses caused oil to rise significantly in early 2011. By October, we saw the black gold sink to a low of $96 per barrel before rising to its current level of nearly $108 a barrel.
Last year’s unrest demonstrated how major oil-producing regions can significantly affect oil prices. As I’ve previously stated, according to PIRA, the Middle East accounts for over 70 percent of OPEC oil production and, along with North Africa, more than 95 percent of the cartel’s capacity growth.
A disruption of the supply chain can also influence oil prices. One of the largest chokepoints along the global oil supply chain is the Strait of Hormuz, which roughly 90 percent of all Persian Gulf oil tankers—some 18 million barrels per day—pass through, according to Barclays. With Iran controlling the entire northern border of the strait, there is a significant chance for disruptions should the country fall into conflict or war.
Case for Sustained $100 Oil
By Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors
In 2011, oil was one of the top performing commodities among those we track, with Brent rising more than 13 percent. Geopolitical risk and unexpected non-OPEC supply losses caused oil to rise significantly in early 2011. By October, we saw the black gold sink to a low of $96 per barrel before rising to its current level of nearly $108 a barrel.
Last year’s unrest demonstrated how major oil-producing regions can significantly affect oil prices. As I’ve previously stated, according to PIRA, the Middle East accounts for over 70 percent of OPEC oil production and, along with North Africa, more than 95 percent of the cartel’s capacity growth.
A disruption of the supply chain can also influence oil prices. One of the largest chokepoints along the global oil supply chain is the Strait of Hormuz, which roughly 90 percent of all Persian Gulf oil tankers—some 18 million barrels per day—pass through, according to Barclays. With Iran controlling the entire northern border of the strait, there is a significant chance for disruptions should the country fall into conflict or war.
Tuesday, January 3, 2012
2012 Outlooks: Morgan Stanley, Bridgewater, Ron Conway, World Ending...
2012 outlooks
Morgan Stanley's 2012 Forecast: S&P Will Close Year At 1,167, Sees Consensus As Too Optimistic (ZeroHedge)
Bridgewater Takes Grim View of 2012 (WSJ)
Where angels will tread: "Ron Conway, special adviser to SV Angel, points to areas where start-ups will create the next billion-dollar companies." (The Economist)
Morgan Stanley's 2012 Forecast: S&P Will Close Year At 1,167, Sees Consensus As Too Optimistic (ZeroHedge)
Bridgewater Takes Grim View of 2012 (WSJ)
Where angels will tread: "Ron Conway, special adviser to SV Angel, points to areas where start-ups will create the next billion-dollar companies." (The Economist)
Guest Post: War Imminent in Straits of Hormuz? $200 a Barrel Oil?
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| Strait of Hormuz (U.S. Navy Imagery/Flickr) |
War Imminent in Straits of Hormuz? $200 a Barrel Oil?
The pieces and policies for potential conflict in the Persian Gulf are seemingly drawing inexorably together.
Since 24 December the Iranian Navy has been holding its ten-day Velayat 90 naval exercises, covering an area in the Arabian Sea stretching from east of the Strait of Hormuz entrance to the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden. The day the maneuvers opened Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Habibollah Sayyari told a press conference that the exercises were intended to show "Iran's military prowess and defense capabilities in international waters, convey a message of peace and friendship to regional countries, and test the newest military equipment." The exercise is Iran's first naval training drill since May 2010, when the country held its Velayat 89 naval maneuvers in the same area. Velayat 90 is the largest naval exercise the country has ever held.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Sears Holdings is Back at $31, Where's the Value? Price/Book at 0.44 (SHLD)
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| Former Kmart HQ (Troy, MI) sold to BlackRock in 2005 |
I was watching SHLD's price action on 12/21/2011 and it looked terrible on the chart (made a new low, can ESL buy Sears CDS?). When the big news hit on 12/27, SHLD closed at $31.78 on Friday, down 27%. It is retesting the 2008/2009 lows and back at 2003/2004 levels, when Kmart (KMRT) emerged from bankruptcy in 2003. Kmart acquired Sears (S) in November 2004 for $11 billion (or eventually $12.3 billion in 2005) to form Sears Holdings Corp (SHLD). Out of bankruptcy, Kmart was a nice real estate play for Lampert since Kmart owned real estate recorded at low historic book values, and real estate was about to go parabolic.
BusinessWeek: The Next Warren Buffett? 11/22/2004:
"And he pushed for Kmart to sell 68 stores to Home Depot Inc. (HD ) and Sears to raise a total of $846.9 million. That's nearly as much as the $879 million value placed on all of Kmart's real estate -- 1,513 stores, 16 distribution centers, and the fixtures -- in bankruptcy proceedings."
While I'm at it, check out the chart of SHLD's price/book ratio going back to 2003 courtesy of ycharts. It is at 0.44 as of 12/30/2011. Since October 2004, SHLD's price/book ratio has been in a range between 0.38 (11/2008) and 2.31 (10/2006). What is 0.44 trying to say here? Is there still hidden real estate value or major equity erosion ahead.
After Sears was acquired, the combined company went from being a cash, tax credit, retail synergy, real estate backstop play to which magical retail company will Lampert acquire in May 2007. SHLD peaked out in April 2007, and the company decided to buy back shares.
Thursday, December 29, 2011
Solar Breakthrough: Cheap Quantum Dot Solar Paint - Guest Post
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| Image source: Notre Dame |
Solar Breakthrough: Cheap Quantum Dot Solar Paint
Researchers have reduced the preparation time of quantum dot solar cells to less than an hour by changing the form to a one-coat quantum dot solar paint.
How?
Titanium dioxide (TiO2) nanoparticles are coated with cadmium sulfide (CdS) or cadmium selenide (CdSe.) The composite nanoparticles, when mixed with a solvent, form a paste that can be applied as one-step paint to a transparent conducting material, which creates electricity when exposed to light.
Although the paint form is currently about five times less efficient than the highest recorded efficiency for the multifilm form, the researchers predict that its efficiency can be improved, which could lead to a simple and economically viable way to prepare solar cells.
EUR/USD Testing January 2011 Low (High 1.28s)
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| EUR/USD courtesy of freestockcharts.com |
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Japanese Tsunami Filmed By Driver In Floating Car (Craziest Moment of 2011)
As 2011 comes to a close, I have to say the Japanese tsunami was the craziest thing to happen this year. Tom Anderson on G+ just put up a video of a driver filming the Japanese tsunami as it hit his street. His car started floating around.
Sunday, December 25, 2011
Satyajit Das Explains How We Got Into This Financial Mess (INET Video)
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| Satyajit Das (INET) |
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| Margin Call! |
In the end, Das said leveraged bets using other peoples money; complex derivatives; mis-priced clustered risk; churning structured products to maintain profitability; repackaging risk throughout the system (counterparty risk); and the incentive to churn for bonuses, ultimately destroyed the financial system in 2008 when risk management failed. Interesting interview (h/t naked capitalism).
Saturday, December 24, 2011
Discussion With Eric Schmidt at Salesforce Dreamforce Conference (Video)
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| Image source: Youtube |
"What I do know is that the next generation of these leaders will be something involving mobile, local and social, which are the terms we use today for the way people live and work. So we've exhausted, right, the legacy if you will of the Xerox..."
Friday, December 23, 2011
Marc Faber Is Convinced The Derivatives Market Will Cease to Exist (Video)
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| Img: Youtube/ReutersVideo |
Thursday, December 22, 2011
Statements by Boehner, Reid, Obama on Payroll Tax Cut Deal, Unemployment Insurance (Boehner Video)
*Political Update*
Robert Prechter: Yield on S&P Should Be Double, Price/Book Ratio Cut In Half (CNBC Video)
Robert Prechter, founder and CEO of Elliott Wave International (see their news feed on the sidebar), thinks the S&P 500 is overvalued, we are in a "bear market rally", and we're in the "late stages of the 1930s depression". He expects a deflationary scenario in the next 4-5 years (so will the Fed pull the trigger on QE3?). Watch the CNBC video after the jump (from 12/14/2011). If interested, I put up yearly chart of the S&P 500 dividend yield going back to 1881. At multpl.com they have historical charts and tables of the inflation rate, 10-year Treasury bond yield and S&P 500 P/E ratio (via Yale Prof. Robert Shiller's database). I did a post comparing the secular lows of the S&P cyclically adjusted P/E ratio (CAPE) to the 10-year yield a few months ago here: Hussman: Under Extreme Secular Undervaluation S&P Hits 400. For a historical chart of the S&P 500 Price/Book ratio (as of 1/28/2011), see this post: Felix Zulauf Sees S&P Bottoming at 500 (Book Value), Bullish On Gold (Price/Book Ratio Chart).
Robert Prechter on CNBC:
Robert Prechter on CNBC:
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Bonds Are Making a Comeback on the NYSE, Reverting Back to the 1940s (Video)
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| Img: NYSE Bonds (Youtube) |
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
UN: Fiscal Austerity and Deleveraging Threaten a Global Recession
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| Img: December 2011 UNCTAD Policy Brief |
Monday, December 19, 2011
Striking Portfolio Balance with Gold Stocks - Guest Post
Guest post by Frank Holmes of U.S. Global Investors
Striking Portfolio Balance with Gold Stocks
By Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors
Gold stocks have historically ranked among some of the most volatile asset classes. Over any given one-year period, it is a non-event for gold stocks to move plus or minus 38 percent. This DNA of volatility is about three times that of gold bullion, which carries an annual volatility around 13 percent.
Despite this volatility, our research shows that investors can use gold stocks to enhance returns without adding risk to the portfolio.
In 1989, Wharton School finance professor Jeffrey Jaffe completed an academic study that illustrated the effects of portfolio diversification into gold stocks. Jaffe’s original study covered the period from September 1971, just after President Nixon ended convertibility between gold and the dollar, to June 1987.
During Jaffe’s study period, the average monthly return for the S&P 500 Index was 0.89 percent. Gold stocks, as measured by the Toronto Stock Exchange Gold and Precious Minerals Total Return Index, converted to U.S. dollars, performed considerably better, returning an average monthly return of 1.42 percent.
Striking Portfolio Balance with Gold Stocks
By Frank Holmes
CEO and Chief Investment Officer
U.S. Global Investors
Gold stocks have historically ranked among some of the most volatile asset classes. Over any given one-year period, it is a non-event for gold stocks to move plus or minus 38 percent. This DNA of volatility is about three times that of gold bullion, which carries an annual volatility around 13 percent.
Despite this volatility, our research shows that investors can use gold stocks to enhance returns without adding risk to the portfolio.
In 1989, Wharton School finance professor Jeffrey Jaffe completed an academic study that illustrated the effects of portfolio diversification into gold stocks. Jaffe’s original study covered the period from September 1971, just after President Nixon ended convertibility between gold and the dollar, to June 1987.
During Jaffe’s study period, the average monthly return for the S&P 500 Index was 0.89 percent. Gold stocks, as measured by the Toronto Stock Exchange Gold and Precious Minerals Total Return Index, converted to U.S. dollars, performed considerably better, returning an average monthly return of 1.42 percent.
Iraq: An Army of Soldiers to be Replaced by an Army of Businessmen - Guest Post
Guest post by James Burgess of Oilprice.com
Iraq: An Army of Soldiers to be Replaced by an Army of Businessmen
After nearly nine years, all US Forces are mandated to withdraw from Iraqi territory by 31 December 2011 under the terms of a bilateral agreement signed in 2008. Now the job facing the war-torn country is to re-build its economy. On Tuesday, prime minister Nouri al-Maliki gave a presentation to more than 400 executives representing a wide range of industries including petroleum, engineering and construction, commercial aviation, architecture, maritime cargo and financial services; the leaders of American commerce and industry, to proclaim Iraq's "limitless" opportunities "open for business" to American investors. He said that, "It is not now the generals but the businessmen and the corporations that are at the forefront" of Iraq's future.
Iraq: An Army of Soldiers to be Replaced by an Army of Businessmen
After nearly nine years, all US Forces are mandated to withdraw from Iraqi territory by 31 December 2011 under the terms of a bilateral agreement signed in 2008. Now the job facing the war-torn country is to re-build its economy. On Tuesday, prime minister Nouri al-Maliki gave a presentation to more than 400 executives representing a wide range of industries including petroleum, engineering and construction, commercial aviation, architecture, maritime cargo and financial services; the leaders of American commerce and industry, to proclaim Iraq's "limitless" opportunities "open for business" to American investors. He said that, "It is not now the generals but the businessmen and the corporations that are at the forefront" of Iraq's future.
Startling the Global Community, Canada Withdraws from the Kyoto Convention - Guest Post
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| Participation in Kyoto Protocol (Wikipedia) |
Startling the Global Community, Canada Withdraws from the Kyoto Convention
Canada has announced its intention to withdraw from the Kyoto treaty on greenhouse gas emissions (GGE), sandbagging the other signatories to the convention. The Kyoto protocol, initially adopted in Kyoto, Japan in 1997, was designed to combat global warming with the agreement allowing countries like China and India take voluntary, but non-binding steps to reduce their greenhouse gas carbon emissions.
International condemnation was swift.
China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said at a news briefing, "It is regrettable and flies in the face of the efforts of the international community for Canada to leave the Kyoto Protocol at a time when the Durban meeting, as everyone knows, made important progress by securing a second phase of commitment to the Protocol. We also hope that Canada will face up to its due responsibilities and duties, and continue abiding by its commitments, and take a positive, constructive attitude towards participating in international cooperation to respond to climate change."
Sunday, December 18, 2011
Euro Approaching First Support Level to Test (1.28738) - 12/19/2011
EUR/USD is continuing its descent tonight after breaking below 1.32121/1.31460 last week. EUR/USD broke down after the EU summit statement lacked a "bazooka" and the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered rates and didn't mention plans to buy bonds. Actually, it officially broke down when Merkel rejected raising the lending limit for the ESM (European Stability Mechanism). Someone has to be trading in front of all of these releases. So now the euro is close to testing the first major support level of 1.287, or the 1/10/2011 low. EUR/USD needs to base out and break through that downtrend line from the October high on a bullish catalyst, or it risks crashing to 1.258 and possibly 1.187. If EUR/USD can break through that downtrend line, it will need to takeout the 1.315-1.32 ceiling (red line) to prove it has enough strength to hit higher trend lines (imo). It is currently trading at 1.30094.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
Greenlight Capital Re's Short Exposure to Sovereign Debt in Q3 (GLRE)
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| GLRE (Greenlight Re) - Stockcharts.com |
"Greenlight Re reported in an Oct. 31 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it sold credit swaps on sovereign debt with a face value of $294.6 million during the third quarter. The firm also sold short $153.8 million worth of non-U.S. sovereign debt, according to the filing." (continue reading at Bloomberg.com)
Interesting maneuver from synthetic to cash shorts (shorting the actual government bond rather than using a credit default swap). Read the article for more info. $GLRE went public in 2007 and got smashed by the financial crash, but is now back trading around the initial IPO pop. Definitely a stock ("risk manager") to keep an eye on. Are there any other quality public reinsurers with a market cap less than $1 billion?
Hat tip Valuewalk
Friday, December 16, 2011
This Week's Credit Ratings Downgrades, Negative Outlooks (Moody's, Fitch 12/2011)
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| Img: Adam_T4 (Flickr) |
Moody's:
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Linkfest: Depressions, Gold/S&P Correlation, Euro Endgame
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| Img: onohoku (flickr) |
Gold on Pace to End Longest Streak Above 200-DMA...Ever (Bespoke Investment Group)
Interesting overnight action around 1,200 in the S&P futures (HedgeAccordingly 1, 2)
The Book of Jobs by Joe Stiglitz: "The U.S. is now facing and must manage a similar shift in the “real” economy, from industry to service, or risk a tragic replay of 80 years ago." "A banking system is supposed to serve society, not the other way around." (VanityFair)
Elliott Wave's Robert Prechter on the bear market rally in equities, today's similarities to the late stages of the 1930s great depression, and why he's bullish on Treasury bonds (deflation) (CNBC video)
Niall Ferguson: Great Britain Saves Itself by Rejecting the EU (Newsweek/The Daily Beast)
UK's unemployment at highest level in 17 years (AP)
Kyle Bass (Hayman Capital) on restructuring the eurozone's debt, and the possibility of an EMU breakup (CNBC video)
Wednesday, December 14, 2011
Hussman: "We Observe Conditions That Have Produced Abrupt Crash-Like Plunges"
John Hussman, manager of the Hussman Funds, issued a warning in his most recent weekly market comment titled "Hard-Negative". He wrote, "here and now we observe conditions that have often produced abrupt crash-like plunges". I see that the S&P 500 broke through the 50 day moving average support level today. Last week the S&P failed to take out the bear market downtrend from July and its 200 day moving average. The market desperately needs a bullish catalyst from somewhere to see a year-end rally to 1,330. Hussman also thinks there is a "high probability of oncoming recession". Hopefully you're hedged in some way. Be careful out there!
Related post: Hussman: Under Extreme Secular Undervaluation S&P Hits 400 (9/5/2011).
"With the exception of extreme market conditions (see Warning- Examine All Risk Exposures, and Extreme Conditions and Typical Outcomes), I try not to wave my arms around about near-term market risks, but I think it's important to cut straight to the chase here. The present market environment warrants unusual concern, in my view. Based on a wide variety of evidence and its typical market implications over an ensemble of dozens of subsets of historical data, the expected return/risk profile of the stock market has shifted to hard-negative. This places us in a tightly defensive position. This isn't really a forecast in the sense that shifts in the evidence even over a period of a few weeks could move us to adjust our investment stance, but here and now we observe conditions that have often produced abrupt crash-like plunges. This combination of evidence includes elevated valuations, overbullish sentiment, market internals best characterized as a "whipsaw trap" on the basis of typical follow-through, heightened credit strains, and clear evidence (on reliable forward-looking indicators) of oncoming recession, among other factors." (continue reading)
John Hussman
Related post: Hussman: Under Extreme Secular Undervaluation S&P Hits 400 (9/5/2011).
US Dollar Breaks Out! S&P Still Below Downtrend, 200DMA (+30 Year Yield, Euro Update)
I did simple technical analysis on charts of the S&P 500 ($SPX), US Dollar Index ($USD), 30-Year Treasury Bond Yield ($TYX), and Euro Index ($XEU). View the chart museum after the jump.
S&P 500:
The S&P is having trouble battling the downtrend line from July and the 200 day moving average. It backed off again and is now testing the 50 day moving average. If the S&P can't hold the 50dma, it will probably roll over and test the October low of 1,075. A week ago, Tom DeMark, a well known market timer and creator of the DeMark Indicators, mentioned on Bloomberg TV that he thought the S&P Index (or futures) would rally to 1,330 by December 21, but the overall trend was still down. As previously mentioned in that post, if the S&P can use the 50dma as support, and a bullish catalyst spikes the S&P through that downtrend line and 200dma, $SPX could possibly reach his target. There is another flattish downtrend line (dotted) at the top of the chart that hits around 1,330, and I noticed that the downtrend line from the 2007 high (the ultimate downtrend) hits around there as well. So whether the S&P hits that trend line in the next week or year(s), the point is, there's a possibility it could breakout and exhaust at that trend resistance level. Personally, I'd rather see some technical damage first.
US Dollar Index and Euro Index:
S&P 500:
The S&P is having trouble battling the downtrend line from July and the 200 day moving average. It backed off again and is now testing the 50 day moving average. If the S&P can't hold the 50dma, it will probably roll over and test the October low of 1,075. A week ago, Tom DeMark, a well known market timer and creator of the DeMark Indicators, mentioned on Bloomberg TV that he thought the S&P Index (or futures) would rally to 1,330 by December 21, but the overall trend was still down. As previously mentioned in that post, if the S&P can use the 50dma as support, and a bullish catalyst spikes the S&P through that downtrend line and 200dma, $SPX could possibly reach his target. There is another flattish downtrend line (dotted) at the top of the chart that hits around 1,330, and I noticed that the downtrend line from the 2007 high (the ultimate downtrend) hits around there as well. So whether the S&P hits that trend line in the next week or year(s), the point is, there's a possibility it could breakout and exhaust at that trend resistance level. Personally, I'd rather see some technical damage first.
US Dollar Index and Euro Index:
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
FOMC Statement Kills S&P Rally, No QE3; EUR/USD Gets Merk'd
The Fed didn't announce QE3 today (which was expected I think), so traders sold the news. Maybe next time. The S&P is still holding the downtrend from July, and the US Dollar Index (DX) broke through the October and November highs today. DX is currently trading at 80.31. EUR/USD got Merk'd today before the S&P sold off (WSJ: Merkel Rejects Raising Lending Limit For ESM-Govt Lawmaker). ESM = European Stability Mechanism: "In July 2013, the ESM will assume the tasks currently fulfilled by the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM)." (ec.europa.eu).
Tom DeMark thinks the S&P hits 1330-1345 by Dec 21. What will DeMark the market to 1,330? A payroll tax cut extension? NYT: House Passes Extension of Cut to Payroll Taxes. Democrats are against it though. This is interesting: Japan Continues To Support Europe At EFSF Auction (NASDAQ). The S&P closed at 1,225 today and is barely holding on to its 50 day moving average. Below are intraday charts of SPY and EUR/USD.
Tom DeMark thinks the S&P hits 1330-1345 by Dec 21. What will DeMark the market to 1,330? A payroll tax cut extension? NYT: House Passes Extension of Cut to Payroll Taxes. Democrats are against it though. This is interesting: Japan Continues To Support Europe At EFSF Auction (NASDAQ). The S&P closed at 1,225 today and is barely holding on to its 50 day moving average. Below are intraday charts of SPY and EUR/USD.
India Embraces Solar Power, Says Price Will Equal Thermal Power in Five Years - Guest Post
Guest post by John C.K. Daly of Oilprice.com
India Embraces Solar Power, Says Price Will Equal Thermal Power in Five Years
Economic South Asian superpower India has firmly embraced solar power, advancing the target date by five years for selling solar-generated electricity at the same rate as electricity generated by fossil fuel plants, from 2022 to 2017.
According to government officials, the reason for moving the date forward is plummeting tariffs in the latest solar development projects, a trend that they believe is likely to continue.
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy Joint Secretary Tarun Kapoor said, "The prices will come down further next year and will continue to fall. Earlier, our aim was that solar power will achieve grid-parity by 2022, but looking at the upbeat response from the industry, we have now reduced our target to 2017. Some big names from India have proved that a large investment will soon be possible in solar projects, as huge as 2,000 megawatts. There are other reasons as well. Internationally, the price of solar cells has come down and with improved technology, the cost of operation as a whole has been reduced, thereby increasing the efficiency."
India Embraces Solar Power, Says Price Will Equal Thermal Power in Five Years
Economic South Asian superpower India has firmly embraced solar power, advancing the target date by five years for selling solar-generated electricity at the same rate as electricity generated by fossil fuel plants, from 2022 to 2017.
According to government officials, the reason for moving the date forward is plummeting tariffs in the latest solar development projects, a trend that they believe is likely to continue.
Ministry of New and Renewable Energy Joint Secretary Tarun Kapoor said, "The prices will come down further next year and will continue to fall. Earlier, our aim was that solar power will achieve grid-parity by 2022, but looking at the upbeat response from the industry, we have now reduced our target to 2017. Some big names from India have proved that a large investment will soon be possible in solar projects, as huge as 2,000 megawatts. There are other reasons as well. Internationally, the price of solar cells has come down and with improved technology, the cost of operation as a whole has been reduced, thereby increasing the efficiency."
Watch the MF Global Hearings, Info on Re-Hypothecation
You'll learn a lot about how these broker-dealers work. Also read: MF Global and the great Wall St re-hypothecation scandal (Thomson Reuters Securities Law). The videos are at C-Span.org.
MF Global Bankruptcy Investigation, Panel 1 (Investors panel, or those that lost money)
MF Global Bankruptcy Investigation, Panel 2 - Part 1, Part 2 (MF Global Executives: CEO Jon Corzine, COO, CFO)
MF Global Bankruptcy Investigation, Panel 3 (w/ CME Group Chairman Terrence Duffy, Jill Sommers of CFTC...)*
Related: Jon Corzine's Testimony During MF Global Bankruptcy Hearing, Has No Idea Where Missing Money Is (12/9/2011)
MF Global Bankruptcy Investigation, Panel 1 (Investors panel, or those that lost money)
MF Global Bankruptcy Investigation, Panel 2 - Part 1, Part 2 (MF Global Executives: CEO Jon Corzine, COO, CFO)
MF Global Bankruptcy Investigation, Panel 3 (w/ CME Group Chairman Terrence Duffy, Jill Sommers of CFTC...)*
Related: Jon Corzine's Testimony During MF Global Bankruptcy Hearing, Has No Idea Where Missing Money Is (12/9/2011)
Shanghai Stock Index Broke the 2010 Low, Wait For Soft Landing on the Chart
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| Img: Shanghai Index intraday (Bloomberg) |
Could the Stock Market Test a Trend Line From 1842? (Chart)
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| Source: Elliott Wave International |
"It is not clear that productivity-induced booms and busts describe many of the crashes cum recessions before 1914. The period from 1834 to 1843 encompassed the most serious recession before the Civil War (Temin, 1969). The Jacksonian era is identified by major investment and speculation in cotton, cotton land, and canals (1834–36). The boom was followed by a stock market crash and two banking panics (1837 and 1839), sovereign debt defaults by a number of states and, as noted, by one of the most serious recessions in history. Another serious episode that ocurred in 1857 was associated with the crash of speculation in railroad stocks." (read the full research paper by Michael Bordo at CFR.org)
And you know about the 1929 stock market crash and "America's Great Depression", a book by Murray Rothbard (via Mises Institute) about the 1921-1929 inflationary boom, excessive leverage in the stock market, margin calls and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff etc.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Total Outstanding Notional Value of OTC Derivatives Tops $700 Trillion (BIS, 6/30/2011)
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| Total Notion Amounts Outstanding of OTC Derivatives (Source: BIS, click for OTC FX Derivatives chart as well) |
More from BIS:
