Tuesday, January 24, 2012

IMF Lowers Global Growth Outlook, Europe is Epicenter (IMF Videos, 1/24/2012)

The IMF (International Monetary Fund) lowered its global growth outlook from its September projections. Europe tipping into recession is the greatest risk ("epicenter") to world growth. Read more: World Economic Outlook Update: Global Recovery Stalls, Downside Risks Intensify -IMF). In the three videos I embedded below, the IMF talked about their global growth outlook, fiscal challenges advanced economies face, and financial sector risks. Issues raised by IMF analysts have been addressed by the United Nations, Ray Dalio on Charlie Rose, Robert Prechter, David Rosenberg, and Richard Koo, on this blog (views vary): Fiscal consolidation and private sector de-leveraging by households and banks threaten global growth. The question is how governments manage it. Do they spread out the deleveraging process, or clear the debt quickly. George Soros, who manages billions and trades the macro environment, told Newsweek that he expects either a deflationary environment, or, worst-case scenario, a collapse of the financial system.

2012/2013 growth projections (full chart at IMF)
"In an update to its World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF said that the euro area would fall into a mild recession in 2012 after the euro area crisis entered a “perilous new phase” toward the end of last year, affecting other parts of the world including the United States, emerging markets, and developing countries.

Overall, activity in the advanced economies is now projected to expand by just 1.2 percent in 2012—a downward revision of ¾ percentage points relative to the forecast last September—picking up to a still tepid 1.9 percent the next year. The global growth outlook for this year is 3.3 percent."

See a chart of the IMF's downside scenario (% deviation from WEO baseline) for World and Euro area GDP growth at Zero Hedge.









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