Achuthan mentioned that ECRI's U.S. Coincident Index (output, jobs, income and sales) was at a 21 month low, and said: "you haven't had a decline like that in the past 50 years without a recession following in short order." Below is a summary of the key points he made during the interview followed by the video.
- GDP growth year-over-year peaked in Q3 of 2010, fell to 1.5% by Q2 of 2011, and has flatlined since then;
- Personal income growth has the same pattern;
- Broad sales growth has the same pattern;
- Industrial production growth year-over-year as of January is at a 22 month low;
- Jobs follow consumer spending growth, he expects jobs to flag soon;
- The "velocity of money has dropped to a record low in the U.S., near a record low in Europe, and near a record low in China." (interesting)
See the post I did yesterday showing charts of year-over-year growth in GDP, personal income, personal consumption, retail sales, and the velocity of money (St. Louis Fed FRED data). They are rolling over.