Goldman's Oppenheimer Says Buy Stocks Relative To Bonds (SPX/USB Since 1993)

courtesy of stockcharts.com
Read Peter Oppenheimer's report at Zero Hedge, and watch Matt Nesto and Jeff Macke's reaction at Breakout. To take the other side, Business Insider posted that SocGen's Albert Edwards expects "new lows on bond yields by Q3 and this equity rally to turn to dust – just as it did in 2011." To build on this, I thought I'd chart out the S&P 500 (SPX), the 30-year Treasury bond price ($USB), and SPX/USB ratio since 1992.

Looking at this strictly as a ratio call, you'd essentially be taking the other side of the 30-year bull market in bonds relative to stocks trading sideways or breaking out from here. Look how SPX/USB rose in tandem with the S&P during the 1990's while the 30-year bond chopped around. You'd want to see the same trajectory in the ratio, but going forward it could be the result of bonds getting killed. It's all about timing the breakdown though.

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