Monday, June 25, 2012

Citigroup's Fitzpatrick Sees Stocks Following 1976-78 Bear Market, Gold Rising to $2,000+, EUR/USD Falling

Tom Fitzpatrick, Citigroup's Global Head of Foreign Exchange Technicals, had interesting views on the Dow Index, EUR/USD and gold on CNBC's Fast Money on June 18, 2012. Watch the video after the jump.

1) Bearish on EUR/USD:


source: CNBC.com

"Our bias on the euro is that we're going to see it move an awful lot lower. Not just this year, but possibly over the next couple of years. In terms of this year we've had a view since the start of the year that we could be going down to at least 1.20. Possibly as low as 1.10 to 1.15. We still think that's achievable within this calendar year. Actually over time we think it's quite possible we could see a move down that could take eventually take the euro down below parity against the U.S. Dollar."

"This year might be a little bit too quick. We're thinking more that this dynamic is very similar to what we saw after the last bear market in the dollar which led us into the savings and loan crisis and the exchange rate mechanism crisis in Europe. That followed with a period of about 5 years where European currencies underperformed the dollar. Our sense is that things are moving a little bit quicker, but if we're looking at those levels of sub-parity, possibly 90 cents, we're probably thinking something more over the course of the next 18 months to 2 years."

2) Fitzpatrick was also bearish on stocks. He said the Dow Index (DJIA) could fall by 20% (6/18/2012) to follow, or rhyme with the 1976-1978 bear market. Watch the video for more details. He compared today's market (2005-2012) to 1973-1977 and found many similarities: equities crashed, housing crashed, oil spiked, gold spiked, dollar was weak, the Fed eased, and markets rose. But, since deflation is in play this time around, he sees the Fed taking on inflation risk rather than battling it.


source: CNBC.com


3) Bullish on Gold:

"We believe number one that gold is very much a hedge against the wings. Whether it's reflation, inflation, or continuing to print money and not getting out of a deflationary dynamic. We think the setup is very like what we saw in 2006 and into 2007. So our bias is we've already put in the lows here that will establish an up-move, that could see us this year initially up to 2,050, and possibly as high as 2,400. On a more medium term basis we believe the long-term charts suggest that we could be pushing as high as 3,400 possibly over the next two to three years."



Source: CNBC.com

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