Thursday, June 28, 2012

Roubini Compares Eurozone Crisis to 1931, Warns of Depressions (Bloomberg Video)

source: Bloomberg.com
Economist Nouriel Roubini (aka Dr. Doom since he called the 2008 crisis) was very doom and gloomish on the periphery of the Eurozone on Bloomberg TV yesterday. He thinks that the euro "may turn disorderly in the next few months" and recessions could turn into depressions ("Japan but worse") if Germany doesn't backstop Italian and Spanish sovereign debt. He compared the Eurozone crisis to Europe in 1931 before Austrian bank Creditanstalt failed and fueled a global financial crisis. He runs Roubini Global Economics.







In a similar way, Larry McDonald, author of the book "A Colossal Failure of Common Sense - The Inside Story of the Collapse of Lehman Brothers", wrote about the "Lehman moment" of the early 1930s in his June 2012 newsletter.

"I had to ask, is this 1931 all over again?

In the early 1930's, similar to the last several years, the US started a global financial crisis only to have it spill over to Europe and then smash back to American shores. Two years after the Crash of 1929, in May 1931, a colossal Austrian bank, the Creditanstalt, collapsed into a sea of insolvency.

A few months later disaster struck when Danat Bank of Germany, one of the largest banks in the world, crumbled under it's own weight of debt. As many of the great investing sages have opined, these events resulted in a global financial crisis and ultimately, the bank failures of the Great Depression. This shock represented the Lehman Moment of that era. By July 1931, 49% of German trade unioners were jobless. Politically, the door was wide open for Hitler to move in. Facists and communists around the world filled a capitalist void that today Fed Charmain Bernanke and a swarm of central bankers cringe a the very thought of repeating." (continue reading)

Related:

1) Soros: This Euro Summit Will Decide if the Euro Breaks Down (Bloomberg TV Interview)

2) Banking crises and the international monetary system in the Great Depression and now (Bank for International Settlements 2010 Working Paper)

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