Friday, August 10, 2012

Revolving Credit Growth is Getting Tired Y/Y, Consumer Credit Well Below Expectations In June

Total consumer credit increased by $6.46 billion in June, which was the smallest expansion since October 2011, according to Reuters. The number was also "well below the $11 billion advance Wall Street economists had forecast in a Reuters poll." When breaking out the number, revolving credit (credit cards) fell by $3.7 billion and non-revolving credit (mainly student loans) rose by $10.15 billion.

For further review, I put up a 10-year chart comparing the year-over-year percent change in total consumer credit and revolving credit. Consumer credit is still growing annually, but it might be getting tired. You can see weakness clearer in revolving credit, which increased only 0.7% y/y.

I know we are in completely different times, but you can see in the chart that credit growth trended down even when the economy was expanding between 2003-2006. I linked to articles on consumer spending and credit trends after the chart.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=9lK

  • Consumer Credit in U.S. Increased Less Than Forecast in June (BusinessWeek)
  • Consumer Credit Misses As Revolving Credit Has Biggest Contraction Since April 2011 (Zero Hedge)
  • The Latest Consumer Credit Data Spotlights The Weakest Part Of The Economy (Business Insider)
  • Discover U.S. Spending Monitor: Consumer Confidence Falls in July (WSJ)
  • The Rich Are Hoarding Cash -- and That's Not Good (CNBC at Yahoo Finance)
  • Consumer Credit Report: Deleveraging Continues (WSJ's Market Beat)
  • KRAFT: Things Are So Bad, Teenagers Can't Even Afford To Buy Gum (Business Insider)
  • US consumers cut back on credit card use in June (AP)
  • Used Vehicle Prices Plunge Signaling End Of Auto Party (Zero Hedge)
  • Gary Shilling: The US Consumer Is Walking Us Right Into A Recession (Business Insider)
  • College Debt Hits Well-Off: Upper-Middle-Income Households See Biggest Jumps in Student Loan Burden (WSJ)

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