S&P Revises Outlook on New Jersey GO Debt to Negative, Has Second Highest Rate of Seriously Delinquent Home Loans In Nation

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New Jersey had a bad day today. First, a Bloomberg article mentioned that New Jersey has the second highest rate of seriously delinquent home loans in the nation.

"The state passed Nevada in the second quarter in the rate of homeowners with seriously delinquent loans -- those 90 days late or in foreclosure -- according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Only Florida had a higher rate of serious delinquencies, and that fell 1.2 percentage points from a year earlier to 17.5 percent of mortgages. In comparison, New Jersey’s rose 1.3 percentage points to 12.7 percent."

And then S&P revised its outlook on New Jersey's general obligation debt to 'negative' from 'stable'. Read the full S&P report here. I'm not sure where you can find New Jersey's credit default swap quote or its default probability percentage for free on the web. But, according to sovereign credit default swap rates at CMA (top ten list is free), Illinois has the highest default probability in the U.S, and then California. I wonder where New Jersey is on the list.
Read more analysis at Businessweek: New Jersey Outlook Cut to Negative on Christie Revenue Goal.

NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Sept. 18, 2012--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services revised its outlook to negative from stable on New Jersey's general obligation (GO), appropriation, and moral obligation debt outstanding. In addition, we affirmed our 'AA-' rating on the state's GO debt, our 'A+' rating on the state's appropriation debt and our 'A-' rating on the state's moral obligation debt. At the same time, Standard & Poor's assigned its 'A+' rating, with a negative outlook, to New Jersey Economic Development Authority's $136.88 million school facilities construction bonds, series 2012KK; $24.37 million school facilities construction refunding bonds, 2012 series MM (federally taxable); $119.06 million school facilities construction notes, (SIFMA Index notes), series G; and $119.06 million school facilities construction notes, (SIFMA Index notes), series H.

"We revised the outlook to reflect our view of the risk of revenue assumptions we view as optimistic, continued reliance on one-time measures to offset revenue shortfalls, and longer-term growing expenditure pressures," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst John Sugden. These pressures include pension funding increases, Medicaid funding, and debt service.

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