"Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.56 in October from 0.00 in September. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from September, and only two made positive contributions to the index in October.
CFNAI 3-Month Moving Avg
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased from –0.36 in September to –0.56 in October—its eighth consecutive reading below zero. October’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year."
The most important macro links:
- Read Jeremy Grantham's Quarterly Letter "On the Road to Zero Growth" at GMO.com (pdf file).
- Marc Faber's presentation "Deflationary Bust or Government Profligacy and Money Printing" for the London Bullion Market Association is at Calibrated Confidence.
- Kyle Bass's November investment letter is at Zero Hedge. He wrote about Japan, the global debt endgame, central banks, subprime MBS, and more. Bass was also interviewed at the 2012 University of Virginia Investing Conference in mid-November.
- Morgan Stanley's 2013 Investment Outlook is available at Business Insider.
- David Rosenberg: 10 Near-Term Uncertainties & How to Invest Around Them (read at Pragmatic Capitalism).
- Interesting posts at Sober Look on China and Australia: 1) "Latest indicators show China avoiding a hard landing", 2) "The RBA will lower rates to blunt the impact of slower mining investment."
- Jim Rickards: "There are only bad outcomes" for the fiscal cliff; the Federal Reserve will keep printing until they devalue the dollar (interviews at The Daily Ticker).
- "Getting on the Train" at Gregor.us is on the resurrection of America's rail system.