S&P 500 Pierces 200DMA at the Close ($SPX, $RUT, $INDU, $USD, 11/8/2012)

The S&P 500 closed at 1377.51 today, down 1.22%, and pierced through the 200-day moving average (1380.71 via stockcharts.com). As noted in my post yesterday, the S&P broke through the uptrend line from the October 2011 low, so there are cracks in the foundation. But, as you can see on the chart, there were a few false breakouts at the 200dma in 2011. During that time, you could see that 200dma retests confirmed downside and upside action. I remember when the E-mini S&P Future was testing both an uptrend line and the 200dma before breaking down, so it was a much easier setup.

It looks like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell 2000 Small Cap Index have already broken below their 200dmas. So S&P is lagging here. Interesting because that's exactly what Tom DeMark was saying about his indicators a few weeks ago on CNBC. Has $SPX put in its 13 top yet?

So could $SPX bounce and retest the 200dma or even break above it? Perhaps, see June. But overall, price action is looking weak. The U.S. Dollar Index is also testing its 200dma on the upside. The Distressed Volatility market polls so far see $SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, trading around 120 on December 31, 2012. $SPY closed at 137.95 today. Vote in the market elections by 11/15 on the left sidebar to make these polls more efficient. The fiscal cliff, EPS deflation (2) and volatility in the eurozone could affect the market going forward.

$SPX (S&P 500 Large Cap Index)

$INDU (Dow Jones Industrial Average)

$RUT (Russell 2000 Small Cap Index)

charts courtesy of stockcharts.com

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