|Source: NY Fed|
Italy Unemployment Rose to Highest in 13 Years in October (Bloomberg)
Will Italy Need a Bailout in 2013? (Citigroup thinks so) (CNBC)
Hedge Funds May Hold Back Greek Bond Plan, Nomura Says (Bloomberg)
|Source: NY Fed|
|S&P 500 Large Cap Index (stockcharts.com)|
|30-year Treasury Bond Yield index (stockcharts.com)|
|Source: Bloomberg TV via Thomas Lee|
"what we saw was that on November 26, [mutual fund] market exposure fell to the lowest level, really I think you might have to go back to 2006 to find it lower. Which means there was a capitulation on mutual funds on the market, which really was a good basis to establish a low."
"Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.56 in October from 0.00 in September. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index decreased from September, and only two made positive contributions to the index in October.
CFNAI 3-Month Moving Avg
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased from –0.36 in September to –0.56 in October—its eighth consecutive reading below zero. October’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year."
|source: Alan Cleaver (Flickr)|
I think my Conquer the Cash book was probably about 4 years early because real estate didn't top out until 2006. But we saw the preliminary things. Most people extrapolate linearly, and we extrapolate according to this fractal model.
But I'm a few years less pessimistic because things have gone down. Real estate is down 45%, commodities are down 40%, stocks are down about 20-25%. So we are heading in that direction. And at some point I think we're going to see people hate stocks and say they will never buy a plot of land again for the rest of their lives. And that will be one of the greatest buying opportunities of all time, when everybody else is negative. We hope so.
There is an alternative to going over the fiscal cliff, in whole or in part.
It involves making real changes to the financial structure of entitlement programs, and reforming our tax code to curb special-interest loopholes and deductions.
By working together and creating a fairer, simpler, cleaner tax code, we can give our country a stronger, healthier economy.
A stronger economy means more revenue, which is what the president seeks.
Because the American people expect us to find common ground, we are willing to accept some additional revenues, via tax reform.
And for that reason, in order to garner Republican support for new revenues, the president must be willing to reduce spending and shore up the entitlement programs that are the primary drivers of our debt.
For purposes of forging a bipartisan agreement that begins to solve the problem, we’re willing to accept new revenue, under the right conditions.
What matters is where the increased revenue comes from, and what type of reform comes with it.