Byron Wien: Major S&P Sell-Off Coming As Earnings Peak, Fiscal Tightening Gets Realized (CNBC Video, Text)

via CNBC
Byron Wien, Vice Chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners LP, believes a major market correction is headed our way. Here's why via his appearance on CNBC today (and his thoughts on gold). MUST SEE.

"Look at the fourth quarter GDP number. I mean that was very disappointing. I think almost every analyst out there thinks earnings are going to up this year. I think earnings are going to be down this year; I think profit margins are peaking; I think revenue growth is going to be relatively slow; and I think the market is being driven right now by the ample liquidity that the Federal Reserve is providing. So, the market can continue to go up because so much of this liquidity is finding its way into financial assets, but eventually the corporate fundamentals take over, and I think they are going to be disappointing."

"Multiples usually expand when interest rates are coming down. I don't think we're going to see interest rates come down further from these levels. And I think the next big move in interest rates is higher. I don't know when that will occur, and it probably won't occur as long as the Federal Reserve is so expansive. But I don't think you can count on expanding multiples especially if earnings are declining. Multiples should increase on declining earnings, but it usually goes the other way."
"The liquidity could drive the market to 15,000, but then it would be exceedingly overbought. You know the best time to buy stocks is when most people are negative on them. And right now sentiment is optimistic if not euphoric. So I think the market is vulnerable right here. But it can get more vulnerable; it can get more overbought than it is, and maybe we can get to 15,000. But I think it would be very risky at that level."
"I think earnings have been better than expected. But right now most people are thinking earnings are going to be $110 for the S&P 500 or even better, and I think earnings are going to be below $100. So when that reality sets in, I think the market could have the correction that we've been talking about today."
"Look you've got everything going against you here. I was surprised that the fourth quarter GDP was as disappointing as it was. After all, nothing bad had happened then. The fiscal cliff hadn't happened. The sequester hadn't happened. The payroll tax holiday was still in effect. Now you've got all three of those things kicking in the first quarter, and I think there will be reduced spending."

He also believes gold will hit $1,900, and he owns it as an insurance policy on his financial assets.

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