$IYT Looks Massively Overbought In Near-Term, Filled 2012 Performance Gap With $SPY, $DIA, $IWM and $QQQ (QQQ Now The Laggard)

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Probably pointing out the obvious here, but IYT looks overbought in the near-term. IYT is currently trading at 104.54 with an RSI (Relative Strength Index) of 85.88. IYT's RSI is currently above the highs last seen before the 2010 flash crash (chart 1). However, if you look deeper into IYT's recent move, it really just filled last year's performance gap with SPY, DIA, IWM, and QQQ (chart 3). Now the interesting thing is QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 ETF, is the laggard of the bunch. I couldn't find a chart of the IYT VIX or IYTVIX VIX, but I put up a chart of its implied volatility vs. realized volatility (via its options prices). IYT's $105, $104 and $103 puts that expire on February 15, 2013 were down today to 1.75, 1.35 and 1.05, respectively, and saw 803, 107 and 250 contracts trade so far (via Yahoo Finance). Not sure what they were doing, just showing what the put premiums were relative to the price. Not much was going on in IYT's March options.

Source: Stockcharts.com

source: ivolatility.com

source: Stockcharts.com

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