Market Value of Equities/GDP Chart Shows How Stocks Haven't Been Undervalued Since The 1950s, 1970s and 1980s

Add the Market Value of Equities/GDP ratio to the list of overvalued market ratios, which includes the S&P's Price/Book ratio, CAPE ratio (Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio or Shiller P/E) and Tobin's q-ratio. John Hussman (President of Hussman Investment Trust) included the MVE/GDP chart in his most recent weekly market comment at HussmanFunds.com. You can see that the market value of equities was below 50% of GDP in the 1950s, 1970s and 1980s, and hasn't been there ever since. It spiked to 150% in 1999/2000, bottomed around 60% at the crisis low in 2009, and is now around 100% of GDP. It is also interesting that since the late 1990s, Total Credit Market Debt/GDP spiked relative to the Market Value of Equities/GDP. So you can understand why the banking system crashed less than 10 years later. Here's what John Hussman said about the chart (emphasis mine):

Source: HussmanFunds.com
"Why do investors seem to be “underweighted” in equities relative to debt (especially compared with the allocations over the past fifty years)? Very simply, because there is so much more debt to be held, and someone has to hold it. The chart below shows the expansion of both equity and debt outstanding since 1950.

Notably, the market value of U.S. equities relative to GDP – though not as elevated as at the 2000 bubble top – is not depressed by any means. On the contrary, since the 1940’s, the ratio of equity market value to GDP has demonstrated a 90% correlation with subsequent 10-year total returns on the S&P 500 (see Investment, Speculation, Valuation, and Tinker Bell), and the present level is associated with projected annual total returns on the S&P 500 of just over 3% annually."

More from @hussmanjp on Twitter the other day:



The Federal Reserve's manipulation of asset prices and credit spreads via its zero percent interest rate policy and purchases of longer-term risk free government debt (Treasury bonds and government-backed mortgage-backed securities) with printed money have been responsible for the S&P's rally and economic growth since the bailouts in 2008/2009. But, going forward in this mature bull market, unless there's a hyperinflationary scare in this deleveraging cycle, or the U.S. dollar collapses for whatever reason, at some point this reflationary trend will become a victim to the normal business cycle. And all of this money printing (currency wars) and interest rate manipulation could have severe negative consequences for the financial markets and economy again as well. Former famed hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller recently told CNBC that he thinks "it's going to end very badly."

"I don't know when it's going to end, but my guess is it's going to end very badly. And it's going to end very badly because, again, when you get the biggest price in the world, interest rates, being manipulated, you get a misallocation of resources."

Related Posts

Comments

HTML Comment Box is loading comments...