Friday, May 31, 2013

$SPY Ratio Watch For June 2013 ($SPY/$GDX, $GLD/SPY, $GDX, $GLD, $SPY)

After reading my post on SPY/$XAX (or $SPX/$XAX), SPY/GDX is the other SPY ratio that has gone vertical recently. GDX is the gold miners ETF and SPY is the S&P 500 ETF. Technically, $GLD (the Gold ETF) and $GDX look very weak here and $SPY looks strong, but I'm mainly looking at ratios because at some point I think the S&P will underperform gold and the gold mining index (or really, fall faster).

GLD recently pierced through its multi-year uptrend line from 2005 (now resting on it). But I found it more interesting that GLD/SPY is resting perfectly on its multi-year uptrend line. See the last chart.

GDX is following a sine wave, check it out. It is in a vicious downtrend and looks weak, and, who knows, maybe it could retrace its entire move from 2008 if economic growth surges, the Fed tapers QE, and Treasury yields spike with low inflation (real yields spike). But, SPY:GDX looks to me looks like it's peaking out at an exhaustion point. Look how it compares to its previous high in 2008.

Nothing is new with SPY, but could it test and possibly pierce through its near-term uptrend line?

Check out the charts courtesy of StockCharts.com.


GLD


GDX


SPY


SPY:GDX (daily)


SPY:GDX (weekly)


GLD:SPY

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