Another Dow 5,000 Call

Dow 5,000 by Dvolatility Designs
'Dow 5,000' by @Dvolatility Designs
Terence Burnham, behavioral economist and former director of portfolio management at Acadia Asset Management (now econ professor at Chapman College), believes "we will see Dow 5,000 before we see Dow 20,000." He doesn't sell me on it as good as Charles Nenner (1, 2, 3), but he does make some good points that are well known by now. First, via on July 11, 2013:

  • "Americans should be saving close to 50 percent of our income. Instead, we are saving zero percent."
  • "Government policies have been making the problems worse, not better."
  • "Stocks right now are terrible investments."

In summary, it sounds like consumers should be deleveraging instead of releveraging (see David Rosenberg's recent note/chart on the recent spike in consumer credit) with manipulated interest rates and asset prices (the mispricing of risk via the Fed's Treasury/Agency MBS purchases aka QE). And on the behavioral side of his call, on CNBC Terence Burnham said: "what's interesting about markets is that people believe crazy things at tops, and here what we believe that's actually crazy is central banks can make us richer."

Let's not forget that Dow 5,000 was a serious thought by many non-perma bear strategists and managers between December 2008 and 2010. For example, Pimco's Bill Gross and Gluskin Sheff's David Rosenberg both thought there was a strong possibility that 5,000 could complete the Dow's secular bear market.

Here is the CNBC video that featured Terence Burnham on July 29. Michael Gayed, Co-PM at Pension Partners, was in the vid as well and mentioned that his call might be a little too extreme (would be the end of capitalism).

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