Below is proof that the Fed's QE program and the so called "wealth effect" hasn't done much for the real economy.
First, look at the velocity of money (GDP/Money Supply) versus the federal funds rate, which is currently at 0% (ZIRP). You can see that money supply growth hasn't translated into GDP growth (the velocity of money has been crashing), and the Federal Reserve's zero percent interest rate policy (liquidity trap) hasn't done much either. But the spike in the monetary base (courtesy of the Fed's bond purchases) has definitely helped the stock market. Look how they both spiked in tandem since QE began. What the wealth effect or asset price inflation effect has done (adjusted for inflation) is allow households to recover 56% of lost wealth from the housing bust and great recession. (Previous post: "Household Net Worth (Inflation Adjusted) Recovered 56% of Losses from the Housing Bust, Great Recession (Peak to Trough Ending Q4 2012".)
Finally, look at the huge gap between the S&P and the velocity of money. That's a crazy divergence. It basically shows how minimal the real recovery has been when priced in the Fed's stimulus program (if it were a ratio). I divided up the S&P and monetary base to make them look better against the velocity of M2 and the federal funds rate. You have to give the Federal Reserve and U.S. government credit for preventing a complete collapse of the financial system and Great Depression 2.0 in 2008-2009, but something tells me this crisis isn't over. And hopefully 80 years from now the next Fed chairman won't be using today's potential policy failures as a template.
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Huge Divergence Between the Velocity of Money and S&P Shows What Has Really Recovered During This Cycle (Part 1)
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