Wednesday, August 7, 2013

$SPX Still Following 1995-2000 Trajectory; RSI Getting Overheated But Not in 1990s Terms

Below I put up a 20 year monthly chart of the S&P and compared the 1995-2000 and 2009-2013 cyclical bull market trend lines, which have the exact same slope. The 2009-2013 bull run is still following the 1995-2000 trajectory and hasn't come close to testing its multi-year uptrend line since November 2012. The monthly RSI (relative strength index) is starting to look overheated, but look what happened in the 90s. Either way, the current bull market is getting mature.

Back in October 2012, I thought that the market would top out at the end of April 2013, but that didn't pan out. At around 1,700 today (+/- 10 points this week), the S&P is about 100 points higher than it was at the April highs. I'm still a long-term bear on the overall market, but I wouldn't be surprised if it kept moving higher on its uptrend line or chopped around before testing it. Wharton Finance Professor Jeremy Siegel thinks the Dow, currently at 15,470, could rally to between 16,000 and 17,000 by the end of the year. I'd rather just look at sector ETFs and stocks at this point than $SPY.

The current stock market, asset price and credit rally has been driven by the Fed's quantitative easing (QE) program aka market manipulation, not by a computer, telecom and internet revolution like we saw in the 1990s. I have a feeling that this bull market will end in a very weird way. The catalyst could be the Fed's tapering and tightening talk (and action), an earnings plunge, debt ceiling fiasco/more fiscal tightening, a geopolitical event, an oil price spike, rising interest rates, or just recessionary economic data. Nobody really knows. Just watch for a trend breakdown.


S&P 500 Monthly Chart (1995-2000 vs. 2009-2013)



S&P 500 Weekly Chart and Current Uptrend Line Since the Middle of 2008


Chart source: Stockcharts.com

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