Links: Jeremy Grantham's Food Call, How China is Deflating its Credit Bubble, CBO's Long-Term U.S. Budget Outlook, Ray Dalio's Interview With Institutional Investor, Weimar's Hyperinflation, News on Recent Terrorist Attacks

Linkfest for September 22, 2013

Our Chat With Jeremy Grantham (WSJ)

...the outspoken Yorkshireman, who is chief investment strategist at GMO, is making headlines with a new prediction: Dire, Malthusian warnings about environmental catastrophe. To hear him tell it, the world is running out of food. Resources will only keep getting more expensive. And climate change looms over it all

WEIMAR: The Truth About History's Most Infamous Hyperinflation Horror Story (Business Insider)

Weimar Germany after World War One went through one of the worst hyperinflations in history, unleashing untold horrors on the German people and their economy.

Here's What China Is Doing To Deflate Its Enormous Debt Bubble (Business Insider)

China has been on a credit growth spree since 2008, when Western households began to deleverage in the face of the global financial crisis hurting Chinese exports.

Societe Generale's Wei Yao writes that China's debt level has since surged to 210% of GDP, from 150% of GDP in 2008. And the problem is it's taking more and more credit growth to deliver less and less economic growth.

The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook (CBO.gov)

Between 2009 and 2012, the federal government recorded the largest budget deficits relative to the size of the economy since 1946, causing federal debt to soar. Federal debt held by the public is now about 73 percent of the economy’s annual output, or gross domestic product (GDP). That percentage is higher than at any point in U.S. history except a brief period around World War II, and it is twice the percentage at the end of 2007. If current laws generally remained in place, federal debt held by the public would decline slightly relative to GDP over the next several years, CBO projects. After that, however, growing deficits would ultimately push debt back above its current high level. CBO projects that federal debt held by the public would reach 100 percent of GDP in 2038, 25 years from now, even without accounting for the harmful effects that growing debt would have on the economy (see the figure below). Moreover, debt would be on an upward path relative to the size of the economy, a trend that could not be sustained indefinitely.






Why China faces four per cent growth (Michael Pettis at Business Spectator)


News on Terrorist Attacks






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