Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Elaine Garzarelli's Indicators Rise to 71.5% from 68.5%, Far From a Sell Signal of 30% - PR Newswire (Was October 2007 an Anomaly For Her Indicators?)

Indicators Rise to 71.5 Percent from 68.5 Percent, Far From a Sell Signal of 30 Percent (via PR Newswire)

NEW YORK, Oct. 15, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- This week, Elaine Garzarelli comments on Janet Yellen's nomination, the government shutdown and debt ceiling talks, and her 30-year track record. Following is an excerpt from the Garzarelli Capital Client Letter…




FYI: She's famous for calling the 1987 stock market crash, but on CNBC on October 19, 2007, she said we were in a secular bull market right before the market crashed 57% (hat tip Barry Ritholtz). And her call was based on her indicators, which were at 75% at that time. During her CNBC interview, she said: "today they are at 75%, anything above 65% is a major buy signal"; "the market in 1987 was 35% overvalued as measured by the S&P, today, 28% undervalued"; "we are near the bottom, not the top of earnings"; "the Fed is easy; right before the crash, Greenspan tightened"; and finally, "this is a secular bull market, this is not a secular bear market." So just keep that in mind.

I'll mention that she was right in July 1998 when she said the S&P would hit 1,475. I'm not sure if she eventually predicted the top, but she started to get cautious in October 1999. She also liked the stock market in the back half of 2000. I also found articles from 1992 and 2003. After the 2008 crash and bailouts, Garzarelli was right in December 2010 when she said the S&P would hit 1,530 because of the Fed's QE program, and right in February 2012 when she said the Dow would hit 15,000 in two years. If you have more articles, provide the link in the comment section.


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