Initial claims for unemployment insurance hit a 9-month high last week. Did initial jobless claims just break out?
The 4-week moving average hasn't broken out yet.
Here you can see that the S&P 500 moves inversely with initial jobless claims. So if initial claims did just break out, the market will probably peak out soon, start pricing in lower EPS, and we'll probably be in a new recession (and see more QE).
Charts at the St. Louis Fed's FRED:
4-week Moving Average of Initial Claims
Previous related post: US Jobless Claims Hit Nine-Month High, Rise for Second Week in Row (AFP)