S&P 500 and Federal Reserve in 2014 vs. 2007 ($SPX)

Don't these moves in the S&P look alike?

Source: StockCharts.com

Source: StockCharts.com

Unfortunately, the S&P lost all of its gains in the second half of 2007 and then entered into a bear market.


Inflation and commodity prices were also rising in 2007, and I think the amount of credit fraud in the system (1, 2, 3) and Greenspan's conundrum with the long end of the curve essentially made the previous tightening cycle useless until the banking system collapsed. The Fed was actually pulling cash from the system (unloading its bond portfolio) towards the end of 2007 while it was lowering rates, which actually coincided with the top of the market. Since 2009, it seems like ending QE (bond purchases) has just replaced this form of tightening. The Fed is currently tapering QE and is set to end its bond purchases in October.

Source: FRED
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